Kondratiev cycles as a method of forecasting global economic development.

Abstract

The thesis focuses on a detailed investigation of the Kondratiev cycle theory to demonstrate its usefulness in comprehending and forecasting certain socioeconomic activities that may have an influence on the development of the global economy, based on current and previous historical and economic events. The fundamental motive for writing about this subject is curiosity about why economic development occurs swiftly at times and not at all at others, can it be predicted, and what the answers are. The research is based on Kondratiev's initial work on "long cycles of conjuncture" and his more recent followers, who concentrated on presenting the theory by connecting it to current and past world events. Due to the intricacy of the topic, the structured literature review is utilized as the research method since it is capable of gaining a deeper grasp of a subject area by offering textual information from individuals who have encountered a given research problem. The term "K-cycle" is frequently used interchangeably with the term "economic cycle." The borders of the Kondratiev cycles are defined by major changes and touchstones in global economic and sociopolitical progress. This demonstrates that Kondratiev's cycles represent specific times in the development of the world economic system. The widespread use of MANBRIC-technologies, the introduction of novel materials, and the development of environmentally friendly energy sources appear to be the cornerstone of the sixth cycle, which humanity is transitioning into nowadays. There are several perspectives on how the future will unfold, which is why the study of K-cycle theory and its relationship to economic growth should be broadened in order to produce more precise forecasting outcomes.