Key determinants for the commercial feasibility of maritime autonomous surface ships (MASS)

Abstract

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS) technologies have been developing rapidly in the last decade, but the commercial feasibility and implementation potential of MASS for merchant shipping is still unclear. To unleash the full potential of the technological development, this study investigates the feasibility of possible MASS variants for merchant shipping. We design a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework incorporating nine key determinants for MASS adoption. Three MASS variants with different degrees of autonomy and two shipping routes are evaluated. Perspectives of relevant maritime professionals were solicited through a web-survey, and the Bayesian Best-Worst Method (BWM) was used for the analysis of the collected data. We find that navigation anti-collision-anti-grounding systems, cybersecurity risks, and capital costs are the three most important criteria for the commercialization of MASS. The analysis further revealed that degree two MASS for intra-European container trade in the Mediterranean and Baltic using small-sized autonomous feeder vessels is considered as the most feasible for the commercialization of the MASS.