Helsinki City Plan 2016 climate change impact assessment : emission scenarios for 2035 and 2050
Lounasheimo, Johannes (2015)
Lahden ammattikorkeakoulu
2015
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2015120920053
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2015120920053
Tiivistelmä
The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the implementation of the new Helsinki City Plan on the greenhouse gas emissions of the city. The main question is, how large are Helsinki’s emissions in the target years of 2035 and 2050. The starting point is the city’s current annual emission monitoring produced by HSY, and the Climate Swing scenario tool. The study also addresses how the future emissions of Helsinki comply with the emission reduction targets of the city, what is the role of urban planning, and what are the strengths and weaknesses of Climate Swing as a tool for master plan emission assessments.
An essential part of the scenario analyses are the underlying general trends and assumptions. Much of the research data was collected from previous scenario exercises carried out in Helsinki. The research methodology combines the narrative scenario of the City Plan’s vision 2050 with quantitative parameters that are entered into the Climate Swing tool.
In order to demonstrate the emission trends, two scenarios were constructed: the “More people” scenario describes the effects of the intensive urban growth that is expected in Helsinki. The “Less emissions” scenario exemplifies a situation where the City Plan is implemented as planned, and a range of emission reduction measures are carried out decisively up to the year 2050. The impacts of the City Plan itself were also assessed separately.
The key finding of this thesis was that the emissions can be decreased to a level where Helsinki’s emission reduction targets are almost met. By having an effect on the new construction, energy renovations and mobility, the City Plan enables 33 % lower emissions compared to the scenario of mere growth. Including other measures, the total reduction would be almost -90 % in 2050. The Climate Swing was originally not designed for master plan assessments, but with some additional calculations it can very well be used for such purposes.
An essential part of the scenario analyses are the underlying general trends and assumptions. Much of the research data was collected from previous scenario exercises carried out in Helsinki. The research methodology combines the narrative scenario of the City Plan’s vision 2050 with quantitative parameters that are entered into the Climate Swing tool.
In order to demonstrate the emission trends, two scenarios were constructed: the “More people” scenario describes the effects of the intensive urban growth that is expected in Helsinki. The “Less emissions” scenario exemplifies a situation where the City Plan is implemented as planned, and a range of emission reduction measures are carried out decisively up to the year 2050. The impacts of the City Plan itself were also assessed separately.
The key finding of this thesis was that the emissions can be decreased to a level where Helsinki’s emission reduction targets are almost met. By having an effect on the new construction, energy renovations and mobility, the City Plan enables 33 % lower emissions compared to the scenario of mere growth. Including other measures, the total reduction would be almost -90 % in 2050. The Climate Swing was originally not designed for master plan assessments, but with some additional calculations it can very well be used for such purposes.