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Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption
Panula-Ontto, Juha; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Kaivo-oja, Jari; O'Mahony, Tadhg; Vehmas, Jarmo; Valkealahti, Seppo; Björkqvist, Tomas; Korpela, Timo; Järventausta, Pertti; Majanne, Yrjö; Kojo, Matti; Aalto, Pami; Harsia, Pirkko; Kallioharju, Kari; Holttinen, Hannele; Repo, Sami (2018)
Elsevier
2018
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-201904034251
Lähdeviite:
http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-201904034251
Lähdeviite:
Panula-Ontto J., Luukkanen J., Kaivo-oja J., O'Mahony T., Vehmas J., Valkealahti S., Björkqvist T., Korpela T., Järventausta P., Majanne Y., Kojo M., Aalto P., Harsia P., Kallioharju K., Holttinen H., Repo S., (2018). Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption. , Elsevier.
Tiivistelmä
Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards
climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these
pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supplydemand
balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems
resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are
analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel
evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact
technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period
2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis,
and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.
climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these
pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supplydemand
balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems
resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are
analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel
evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact
technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period
2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis,
and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.