Foresight in a municipal enterprise: Developing a recommendation as a foresight process
Tarkkonen, Elina (2025)
2025
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-202503315267
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-202503315267
Tiivistelmä
The thesis objective was to develop a recommendation as a foresight process for the safety telephone service of Palvelukeskus Helsinki, a municipal enterprise owned by the City of Helsinki. The request for a foresight process is based on the need to identify and evaluate change phenomena affecting the business landscape. The recent years have reminded us that the global and local events and change phenomena may have a direct impact on the service, and thus, anticipation of changes has become even more critical.
The knowledge base of this thesis aims to increase comprehension of foresight as an organizational practice. The knowledge base will introduce the core concepts of foresight and provide examples of foresight process models. Furthermore, the knowledge base introduces a framework for assessing organizational foresight maturity.
As the objective of this thesis was to develop a recommendation as a foresight process for the safety telephone service, the thesis utilizes qualitative research to investigate the baseline for development. As the primary method, semi-structured interviews were conducted to create comprehension of the prevailing cultural, structural, and technical factors at the safety telephone service the recommendation as a foresight process should consider. The semi-structured interview findings were later complemented with a focus group interview. The research findings indicate that the utilization of futures intelligence and foresight is currently a rather new field at the safety telephone service. Instead, historical data seemed to govern in planning and decision-making. However, the research suggests that, as a collaborative and regular practice, foresight could enhance service planning and support decision-making. Based on the qualitative research findings, a four-phased recommendation as a foresight process was developed for the safety telephone service. The purpose of the recommendation is to function as a first impulse towards foresight and utilization of futures intelligence.
The recommendation as a foresight process was not tested during the thesis process, and therefore, it is recommended to apply the foresight process model and evaluate its applicability. The experiences and feedback can be further utilized for developing the foresight process model to better serve not only the safety telephone service but also other Palvelukeskus Helsinki services.
The knowledge base of this thesis aims to increase comprehension of foresight as an organizational practice. The knowledge base will introduce the core concepts of foresight and provide examples of foresight process models. Furthermore, the knowledge base introduces a framework for assessing organizational foresight maturity.
As the objective of this thesis was to develop a recommendation as a foresight process for the safety telephone service, the thesis utilizes qualitative research to investigate the baseline for development. As the primary method, semi-structured interviews were conducted to create comprehension of the prevailing cultural, structural, and technical factors at the safety telephone service the recommendation as a foresight process should consider. The semi-structured interview findings were later complemented with a focus group interview. The research findings indicate that the utilization of futures intelligence and foresight is currently a rather new field at the safety telephone service. Instead, historical data seemed to govern in planning and decision-making. However, the research suggests that, as a collaborative and regular practice, foresight could enhance service planning and support decision-making. Based on the qualitative research findings, a four-phased recommendation as a foresight process was developed for the safety telephone service. The purpose of the recommendation is to function as a first impulse towards foresight and utilization of futures intelligence.
The recommendation as a foresight process was not tested during the thesis process, and therefore, it is recommended to apply the foresight process model and evaluate its applicability. The experiences and feedback can be further utilized for developing the foresight process model to better serve not only the safety telephone service but also other Palvelukeskus Helsinki services.