Predictive climate analysis and bioclimatic optimization for the design and renovation of sustainable buildings : the Δ → P → A method for heritage building adaptation in a changing climate

Abstract

This research develops an innovative methodology, Δ → P → A (Delta → Potential → Accurate), to correct biases inherent in climate models and generate locally relevant future weather data for architectural design. Applied to the case study of a medieval building in Coublanc (Saône-et-Loire, France), the study evaluates the effectiveness of various bio-based insulation solutions for mitigating climate change impacts through reduced heat loss. Using ERA5-Land data distributed by the Copernicus climate store and MERRA-2 by NASA POWER for the period 1990-2010, then CMIP6 projections (SSP5-8.5 scenario) until 2100, the research demonstrates a notable seasonal asymmetry of warming. The results reveal that bio-based insulation with high thermal resistance offers an optimal compromise between winter comfort and protection against summer overheating, with performance that exceeds current French regulatory standards. This methodological approach bridges the gap between climate science and architectural practice, offering adaptive solutions for built heritage in a changing climate.