Evaluating the effectiveness of carbon reduction strategies in Glasgow and Dresden : a sectoral assessment using carbon accounting

Abstract

This study conducts a comparative sectoral assessment of carbon reduction strategies in the cities of Glasgow (Scotland, UK) and Dresden (Germany), utilizing a bottom-up carbon accounting approach aligned with the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPC). It focuses on two representative neighbourhoods—Sighthill in Glasgow and Gorbitz in Dresden—quantifying current emissions from the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. The research also evaluates the mitigation potential of six targeted interventions within these neighbourhoods.

The research is structured into three analytical phases: (1) a sub-urban carbon footprint analysis of household-level emissions across the three sectors; (2) a socio-spatial analysis exploring the correlation between neighbourhood-specific characteristics (e.g., housing density, transport mode share, dwelling typologies) and per capita emissions; and (3) scenario-based modelling of urban GHG reduction strategies. The scenarios are categorized into technological (e.g., electrification of rail, geothermal heating), behavioural (e.g., promotion of active travel), and integrated policy/technology measures (e.g., decarbonization of the electricity grid through renewables sources), and are informed by municipal and national decarbonization targets.

Results indicate substantial sectoral mitigation potential when applying locally adapted interventions. In Sighthill, electrification of public transport combined with EV infrastructure reduces transport-related emissions by 41%, while a full transition to deep geothermal heating reduces heating emissions by 95.6%. In Gorbitz, transitioning to offshore wind achieves a 99% reduction in electricity-related emissions, while integrating solar thermal systems into the heating system achieves a 48.6% GHG emissions reduction. Behavioural shifts, particularly in transport, also generate measurable emissions reductions. The scenario assessment demonstrates that emissions reduction is highly dependent on the alignment of local urban form, energy systems, and socio-demographic variables with selected policy instruments.

The thesis concludes that localized carbon accounting, connected with integrated mitigation planning, offers a valuable framework for advancing urban climate strategies. The findings emphasize the relevance of tailoring low-carbon measures to neighbourhood-specific conditions and support the integration of socio-spatial data in climate policy formulation.