Finding Methods for Estimating Concurrent Player Numbers of Multiplayer Games
Gestrin, Christian (2025)
2025
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2025121135137
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2025121135137
Tiivistelmä
This Bachelor’s thesis explores different methods of data collection and analysis of concurrent player numbers of multiplayer games using different sources of data. The thesis was done for a commissioning game studio, Company Y, with the aim of finding ways to estimate player numbers, which would aid in optimizing the global availability of multiplayer game servers and predicting server costs.
Quantitative research and analysis methods were used on data consisting of concurrent player numbers at different points in time, which was collected on 10 games from SteamDB, as well as on Game X’s playtests through a game server orchestrator.
The thesis found patterns in the SteamDB data indicating peaks in player numbers on launch days or shortly thereafter, with 30-60% drops in concurrent players a week after launch, followed by gradual declines over the following 120 days, with some exceptions. Playtest data of Game X indicated similar patterns on shorter timescales of a week or an hour. While the research suffered from a lack of region-specific player numbers and limitations in data quantity, it found several ways for game developers to conduct further research around the subject. At the end of the thesis, ideas for further research and development are given.
Quantitative research and analysis methods were used on data consisting of concurrent player numbers at different points in time, which was collected on 10 games from SteamDB, as well as on Game X’s playtests through a game server orchestrator.
The thesis found patterns in the SteamDB data indicating peaks in player numbers on launch days or shortly thereafter, with 30-60% drops in concurrent players a week after launch, followed by gradual declines over the following 120 days, with some exceptions. Playtest data of Game X indicated similar patterns on shorter timescales of a week or an hour. While the research suffered from a lack of region-specific player numbers and limitations in data quantity, it found several ways for game developers to conduct further research around the subject. At the end of the thesis, ideas for further research and development are given.