Future scenarios of electricity sales in 2027
Tanhua, Aino (2022)
2022
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2022120526335
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2022120526335
Tiivistelmä
This thesis aims at creating plausible futures scenarios for electricity sales in 2027 and use them to enable better decision-making in the commissioning company. The future of energy industry and especially electricity sales in Finland are examined through futures studies methods by using a prospective competitive strategy process, which combines scenario planning with business wargaming.
Futures studies aim at researching the possible futures through various theories and methods. Before choosing the method for this thesis, an introduction to most prevalent theories, approaches and methods is included.
By using market reviews, existing scenario work, PESTEL analysis, and SWOT analysis, four future scenarios are created. The scenarios describe the electricity sales business environment in general. Business wargaming is then used to test these theories and their implications in a business environment. Through the scenarios and the workshop, an understanding of possible futures is created to enable better decision-making.
The results from this prospective competitive strategy process method are reflected to the stated wanted outcomes – knowledge about future competition, industry’s boundaries, and best responses to the coming changes. The method is found to answer these questions, but some other possible approaches are found as well.
Futures studies aim at researching the possible futures through various theories and methods. Before choosing the method for this thesis, an introduction to most prevalent theories, approaches and methods is included.
By using market reviews, existing scenario work, PESTEL analysis, and SWOT analysis, four future scenarios are created. The scenarios describe the electricity sales business environment in general. Business wargaming is then used to test these theories and their implications in a business environment. Through the scenarios and the workshop, an understanding of possible futures is created to enable better decision-making.
The results from this prospective competitive strategy process method are reflected to the stated wanted outcomes – knowledge about future competition, industry’s boundaries, and best responses to the coming changes. The method is found to answer these questions, but some other possible approaches are found as well.