Potential future paths in electric vehicle charging

Abstract

The global response to climate change necessitates urgent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction, where traffic electrification is seen as one of the most promising pathways for decarbonization of the transport sector. The success of this transition is inextricably linked to the timely development of adequate Electric Vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure, which requires effective, forward-thinking regulation to overcome challenges related to installation costs, limited grid capacity, and the lack of standardization. This Master's thesis aims to analyze the current European Union regulatory framework for public EV charging of passenger cars and its impact on three key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 7, 11, and 13: Affordable and Clean Energy, Sustainable Cities and Communities, and Climate Action). Based on this analysis, the research identifies key factors and uncertainties affecting infrastructure expansion and develops plausible future scenarios and potential regulatory pathways to accelerate emissions reduction activities.

A mixed methods approach was employed, beginning with a comprehensive literature review. Data collection utilized three complementary sources: expert insights gathered through a dedicated questionnaire, findings from consumer studies and surveys, and recent academic literature. The collected data confirmed that while current EU regulation, such as the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), addresses crucial issues like deployment targets and user-friendliness, the pace of adoption is currently hindered by the economic viability for Charging Point Operators (CPOs), the regulatory complexity, inadeqate measuring of success, and persistent consumer concerns regarding charging reliability, availability (especially in rural areas), and high initial EV costs.

Using the critical uncertainties identified from this data, four future scenarios were developed via the 2x2 double variable scenario building method. The research concludes that the most effective potential regulatory strategy involves a systemic approach to traffic electrification combined with active collaboration between regulators, CPOs, and the energy sector. This pathway is necessary to meet the intermediate 2030 targets and achieve the final zero-emissions goal by 2050.