Cost and Profit Analysis of Unmanned Food Delivery Vehicles in Shenzhen

Abstract

Urban instant delivery has expanded rapidly, yet the last mile has remained one of the most cost sensitive and operationally uncertain parts of logistics. In Shenzhen, unmanned food delivery vehicles have been introduced as a possible response to labor pressure, demand concentration, and the need for more stable service performance. At the same time, their commercial value has remained uncertain because high initial investment, recurring supervision and maintenance costs, regulatory requirements, and user acceptance issues have all influenced the economic outcome. For this reason, the cost structure and profit potential of unmanned food delivery in Shenzhen were examined under a clearly defined operating scenario. A mixed methods approach was adopted. Cost structure was decomposed into initial investment, ongoing operating costs, and regulatory and compliance related costs. Revenue mechanisms, contribution margin, and break-even conditions were then analyzed through a unit economics and cost volume profit framework. In addition, consumer acceptance and perceived risk were considered through questionnaire evidence, and the local regulatory and market environment in Shenzhen was incorporated into the interpretation. The results indicated that unmanned food delivery did not automatically reduce delivery cost, but redistributed cost from direct labor toward vehicles, supervision, maintenance, and compliance. Economic viability was found to depend strongly on route stability, order density, and utilization. Semi closed scenarios such as campuses and industrial parks showed stronger profit potential than fragmented open environments. It was concluded that unmanned food delivery in Shenzhen was economically promising but only under specific operational and institutional conditions.