TESTING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS : Investigating whether the smartest group actually performs better than other groups
Malla, Avinash (2016)
Oulun ammattikorkeakoulu
2016
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2016113018353
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2016113018353
Tiivistelmä
In his book, “The Wisdom of Crowds”, James Surowiecki argues that a group becomes “smart” and
makes better decision than an individual if the group satisfies the four conditions-diversity of
opinion, independence, decentralization and aggregation. This thesis intends to investigate
whether groups that have higher diversity of opinion, independence, decentralization and
aggregation perform better than the groups that don’t. Ideally, the groups should perform better
when they satisfy the four conditions better.
A research was conducted on the groups that participated in the week-long annual event organized
by Oulu University of Applied Sciences called Innoweek. There were two sets of groups that worked
on two different tasks. The participants were asked to score how they themselves performed in the
group based on the four conditions. They were asked to score the degree to which they satisfied
the four conditions using a Likert scale. These scores were then compared with the actual results
of Innoweek to explore any correlations that existed.
The results showed that one set of groups followed The Wisdom of Crowds hypothesis while
another set of groups, working on a different task, did not. Both sets of groups however performed
better when they had higher diversity of opinion. The results of the study can be optimized by
repeating the research with different sets of data and on a larger scale. A more scientific approach
should be taken towards the collection and assessment of the data.
makes better decision than an individual if the group satisfies the four conditions-diversity of
opinion, independence, decentralization and aggregation. This thesis intends to investigate
whether groups that have higher diversity of opinion, independence, decentralization and
aggregation perform better than the groups that don’t. Ideally, the groups should perform better
when they satisfy the four conditions better.
A research was conducted on the groups that participated in the week-long annual event organized
by Oulu University of Applied Sciences called Innoweek. There were two sets of groups that worked
on two different tasks. The participants were asked to score how they themselves performed in the
group based on the four conditions. They were asked to score the degree to which they satisfied
the four conditions using a Likert scale. These scores were then compared with the actual results
of Innoweek to explore any correlations that existed.
The results showed that one set of groups followed The Wisdom of Crowds hypothesis while
another set of groups, working on a different task, did not. Both sets of groups however performed
better when they had higher diversity of opinion. The results of the study can be optimized by
repeating the research with different sets of data and on a larger scale. A more scientific approach
should be taken towards the collection and assessment of the data.