The Impact of Extreme Heat Waves on Commercial Real Estate at the Property Level : Case of Germany

Abstract

The present study discusses the vulnerability of commercial real estate at the property (physical) level upon increasing heat waves due to global climate change. The aim of this research is to identify the risk of extreme heat waves on indoor thermal comfort and performance of building envelopes, which can serve as a reference for decision making of property management in refurbishment projects of existing as-sets. Therefore, this research was conducted based on literature review of climate change, risks, and mitigation measures, case studies of worst and best practices, and a simulation of a building model (with 1918-1948 typology) under RCP4.5 (IPCC, 2021) projected temperature increases by 2050. The weather files and location of the simulation model are in Berlin, Tempelhof area. The key research findings demonstrated climate change scenarios under RCP4.5, by 2050. Which poses high risk of overheating in properties built with intentions (standards) for heating a dominant climate. However, recent studies about mitigation and adoption measures were reviewed to tackle these future challenges. Findings from reviewing the existing cases in South-West cities in the U.S, illustrated weakness of old buildings under increasing heat, and mitigation measures at the legislative scale. Another case study showed the ad-vantage of proper design in achieving indoor thermal comfort with passive cooling, heat reflecting facades, and low energy consumption in desert environments. Follow-ing the finding in previous sections of this research, the author conducted simulation model of the old building with location in Berlin. The results of simulations showed the difference of indoor air temperature increases between building model with basic insulation and advanced refurbishment, under 85th, 50th, 15th percentiles of RCP4.5 emission scenario. In addition, the last simulations demonstrated positive outcomes in reducing the indoor air temperature by employing window openings for cross-ventilation and installing solar shading devices. Overall, the results of this study showed the significance of renovating buildings with measures that can withstand future extreme heat with lower energy consumption. However, it is important to design the energy performance of the building by using the correct weather files and materials to gain the maximum outcome.