Relative age effects and player pathways in international ice hockey: a longitudinal multi-cohort analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Past research shows that relative age effects (RAEs) are highly prevalent in ice hockey. Early-born players benefit from more exposure, especially in the early stages of development, and are frequently considered “more talented.” Although RAEs are apparent in these early stages, little is known about how it affects pathways leading to the highest levels of competition. This study aims to look more closely at the associations between RAEs and players’ career trajectories in 4 hockey nations: Canada, Finland, Czechia, and Slovakia. Specifically, it aims to: (1) evaluate the prevalence of RAEs in each country, (2) identify players’ career pathways and examine the impact of RAEs on the players, and (3) compare these effects for each nation.

Methods: Data were drawn from 4,306 players (100% males born between 1992 and 2002), who were invited to national development and selection camps between 2009 and 2019. Trajectory clusters were estimated from the players’ participation in 8 career milestones, from U17 to representation of their country at the Olympic Games. Group comparisons were conducted based on birth quartiles and hockey nations.

Results: The results confirmed the presence of RAEs in the four hockey nations. Consistent with past research, early-born players are overrepresented in the early career stage, whereas late-born players begin to emerge during transition to junior level (U20). Some nation-specific differences were observed.

Discussion: This provides further support for the stakeholders of ice hockey association looking to enhance their national team selection processes and discover structuring pathways that offer development opportunities for all groups of players.